New Zealand general election, 2005
From Open Encyclopedia
The 2005 New Zealand general election took place on 17 September 2005. No single party or recognised bloc won a majority in the unicameral House of Representatives, but the Labour Party of Prime Minister Helen Clark secured two more seats than its closest rival, the National Party of Dr Don Brash. Most of the other parliamentary parties polled less well than in the previous election, losing votes and seats, but the new Māori Party took four electorate seats, including three from Labour.
Brash deferred conceding the election until 1 October 2005, when the inclusion of special votes caused National's tally of seats to drop from 49 (on election-night) to 48.
The election saw a strong recovery by National - gaining 21 more seats than at the 2002 election, when it had suffered its worst result since it first fought a general election in 1938. Despite this resurgence, National failed to displace Labour as the largest party in Parliament. National's gains apparently came mainly at the expense of smaller parties, while Labour won only two seats fewer than in 2002.
On 17 October, Clark announced a new coalition agreement that saw the return of her minority government coalition with the Progressive Party, with confidence-and-supply support from New Zealand First and from United Future. New Zealand First parliamentary leader Winston Peters and United Future parliamentary leader Peter Dunne became ministers of the Crown, though outside Cabinet. Peters became Minister of Foreign Affairs while Dunne became Minister of Revenue. The Green Party, which had thrown its weight behind Labour before the election, received no cabinet post (see below), but gained several agreed concessions on matters such as energy and transport from Labour.
Contents |
Official election results table
| Summary of the 17 September 2005 New Zealand Parliament election resultsedit | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parties | Votes | % | Change | Electorate seats | List seats | Total | Change since 2002 | |
| New Zealand Labour Party | 935,319 | 41.1 | -0.2 | 31 | 19 | 50 | -2 | |
| New Zealand National Party | 889,813 | 39.1 | +18.0 | 31 | 17 | 48 | +21 | |
| New Zealand First | 130,115 | 5.7 | -4.7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | -6 | |
| Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand | 120,521 | 5.3 | -1.7 | 0 | 6 | 6 | -3 | |
| Māori Party | 48,263 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | +4 | |
| United Future New Zealand | 60,860 | 2.7 | -4.0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | |
| ACT New Zealand | 34,469 | 1.5 | -5.6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -7 | |
| New Zealand Progressive Party | 26,441 | 1.2 | -0.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| Other parties | 29,828 | 1.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 2,275,629 | 100.0 | 69 | 52 | 121 | |||
| Informal votes | 10,561 | |||||||
| Total votes cast | 2,286,190 | |||||||
The results of the election give a Gallagher index of disproportionality of 1.11.
For further details of results (including results by constituency) see New Zealand general election, 2005: in depth results
Analysis of results
Going into the election, Labour had assurances of the support of the Greens (6 seats in 2005, down three from 2002) and of the Progressives (one seat, down one). This bloc of 57 seats left Clark four seats short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 121-seat Parliament (decreased from the expected 122 because the final results gave the Māori Party only one overhang seat after it appeared to win two overhang seats on election night). On October 5 the Māori Party began a series of hui to decide whom to support. That same day reports emerged that a meeting between Helen Clark and Māori co-leader Tariana Turia on October 3 had already ruled out a formal coalition between Labour and the Māori Party. Māori Party leaders also held discussions with National representatives, but most New Zealanders thought the Māori Party more likely to give confidence-supply support to a Labour-dominated government because its supporters apparently heavily backed Labour in the party vote.
Had Turia and her co-leader Pita Sharples opted to join a Labour-Progressive-Green coalition, Clark would have had sufficient support to govern without support from other parties. As a result, Labour needed the support of New Zealand First (7 seats, down 6) and United Future (3 seats, down five) to form a government. New Zealand First said it would support (or at least abstain from opposing in confidence motions) the party with the most seats. Clark sought a positive New Zealand First commitment rather than abstention, and Labour may have gone so far as offering Peters a ministerial post [1]. United Future, who supported the previous Labour-Progressive minority government in confidence and supply, said it would talk first to the party with the most seats about a support or coalition arrangement. Both New Zealand First and United Future said they would not support a Labour-led coalition which included Greens in Cabinet posts. However, United Future indicated it could support a government where the Greens gave supply and confidence votes [2]. This suggested a return of the former Labour-Progressive minority government as the most likely outcome.
Brash had only one feasible scenario to become prime minister: in a centre-right coalition with United Future and ACT (two seats, down seven). Given the election results, however, such a coalition would have required the confidence-and-supply votes of both New Zealand First and the Māori Party. This would have run counter to Peters' promise to deal with the biggest party. It would have also have caused considerable difficulties for Turia and Sharples to justify supporting National after their supporters' strong support for Labour in the party vote.
Background
Image:NZ election billboards.jpg
The 2002 election saw the governing Labour Party retain office. However, its junior coalition partner, the Alliance, collapsed, leaving Labour to form a coalition with the new Progressive Coalition, formed by former Alliance leader Jim Anderton. The coalition then obtained an agreement of support ("confidence and supply") from United Future, enabling it to form a stable minority government. The National Party, Labour's main opponents, suffered a considerable defeat, winning only 21% of the vote (22.5% of the seats).
The collapse of National's vote led ultimately to the replacement of leader Bill English with parliamentary newcomer Don Brash on 28 October 2003. Brash began an aggressive campaign against the Labour-dominated government. A major boost to this campaign came with his "Orewa speech" (27 January 2004), in which he attacked the Labour-dominated government for giving "special treatment" to the Māori population, particularly over the foreshore and seabed controversy. This resulted in a surge of support for the National Party, although most polls indicated that this subsequently subsided. National also announced it would not stand candidates in the Māori seats, with some smaller parties following suit.
The foreshore-and-seabed controversy also resulted in the establishment of the Māori Party. The Māori Party hoped to break Labour's traditional (and current) dominance in the Māori seats, as New Zealand First had in the 1996 election.
A number of "minor" (less successful) parties contested the election. These included Destiny New Zealand (the political branch of the Destiny Church) and the Direct Democracy Party.
Issues
The National party campaigned on the platform of (National Party Press Release):
- Taxation - cutting taxes significantly
- Removing references to the Treaty of Waitangi from existing legislation; resolving all treaty claims amicably by 2010; and removing the racially distinct Maori seats from parliament.
- Making student loan repayments and $5000 of pre-school childcare costs tax deductable
- "Reworking" the New Zealand Resource Management Act to make development easier
- "Removing excessive bureaucracy" in the education system, in particular by overhauling the NCEA, and by re-introducing "bulk funding" of schools.
- Abolishing early parole for violent criminals. (Currently, most prisoners become eligible for parole after serving one-third of their sentence.
- A return to "market rents" for state housing tenants, including a system of paying housing subsidies (for the poorest tenants) directly to private landlords.
- Part public/private ownership of the public health system
- A "work-for-the-dole" scheme
The Labour Party campaigned on the platform of (Labour web site):
- Student loans - writing off interest if the recipient stays in New Zealand
- Health - a number of extra public-hospital operations pledged
- Treaty of Waitangi - accepting no lodgements for treaty claims after September 1 2008
- Increasing rates rebates
- A "kiwisaver" program, aimed at getting first homeowners into their own homes
- Sponsoring 5,000 new apprenticeships
- Increasing community police-force numbers by 250.
- A "welfare for families" tax relief/benefit programme aimed at poor/middle-income families
Polls
A series of opinion polls published in June 2005 indicated that the National Party had moved ahead of Labour for the first time since June 2004. Commentators speculated that a prominent billboard campaign may have contributed to this. Some said the National Party had peaked too early. The polls released throughout July showed once more an upward trend for Labour, with Labour polling about 6% above National. The release by the National Party of a series of tax-reform proposals in August increased its ratings in the polls.
Direct comparisons between the following polls have no statistical validity:
| Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Greens |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| One News Colmar Brunton | 29 August | 43% | 40% | 5% | 7% |
| 3 News TNS | 1 September | 39% | 41% | 6% | 6% |
| Herald DigiPoll | 2 September | 43.4% | 39.1% | 6.6% | 5% |
| Fairfax NZ/ACNeilsen | 3 September | 41% | 44% | <5% | 5% |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 4 September | 38% | 46% | 4.6% | 6% |
| 3 News TNS | 7 September | 45% | 36% | 5% | 7% |
| Herald Digipoll | 8 September | 40.6% | 40.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% |
| Herald Digipoll | 11 September | 42.1% | 38.5% | 5% | 6% |
| ACNielsen-Sunday Star-Times | 11 September | 37% | 44% | 5% | 6% |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 11 September | 39% | 41% | 6% | 6% |
| Fairfax ACNielsen | 14 September | 37% | 43% | 7% | 6% |
| 3 News TNS | 15 September | 40.5% | 38.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% |
| TVNZ Colmar Brunton | 15 September | 38% | 41% | 5.5% | 5.1% |
| Herald Digipoll | 16 September | 44.6% | 37.4% | 4.5% | 4.6 % |
No one political event can explain the significant differences between most of these polls over the period between them. They showed either volatility in the electorate and/or flaws in the polling methods. In the later polls, the issue of National's knowledge of a series of panphlets (distributed by members of the Exclusive Brethren and attacking the Green and Labour parties) appeared not to have reduced National Party support.
Candidates
For lists of candidates in the 2005 election see:
Voting
Postal voting for New Zealanders abroad began on 31 August. Ballot voting took place on Saturday September 17, from 9AM to 7PM. The Electoral Office released a provisional result at 12.05AM on September 18.
Funding
New Zealand operates on a system whereby the Electoral Commission allocates funding for television and radio advertising. Parties must use their own money for all other forms of advertising, but may not use any of their own money for television or radio advertising.
| Party | Funding |
|---|---|
| Labour | $1,100,000 |
| National | $900,000 |
| ACT | $200,000 |
| Greens | $200,000 |
| NZ First | $200,000 |
| United Future | $200,000 |
| Māori Party | $125,000 |
| Progressives | $75,000 |
| Alliance | $20,000 |
| Christian Heritage NZ | $20,000 |
| Destiny NZ | $20,000 |
| Libertarianz | $20,000 |
| 99 MP Party* | $10,000 |
| Beneficiaries Party* | $10,000 |
| Democrats | $10,000 |
| National Front* | $10,000 |
| New Zealand F.R.P.P.* | $10,000 |
| Patriot Party* | $10,000 |
| Republic Aotearoa New Zealand Party* | $10,000 |
| The Republic of New Zealand* | $10,000 |
*Must register for funding
Source: Electoral Commission
External links
- Elections New Zealand, joint website of the Electoral Enrolment Centre, Chief Electoral Office, and Electoral Commission.
- 2005 General Election Results from Chief Electoral Office, Ministry of Justice
- nzvotes.org, comparative information on parties, candidates and electorates
- New Zealand Herald Election 2005 website
- Stuff.co.nz Election 2005 website
- Scoop Election 2005 website
- Scoop Election 2005 campaign diary
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